“Man is a rational animal — so at least I have been told. Throughout a long life, I have looked diligently for evidence in favor of this statement, but so far I have not had the good fortune to come across it.” 

Bertrand Russel, “An Outline of Intellectual Rubbish”, 1950

There really is a discipline called “Decision Making Theory.” Making Wise Decisions is an entire field of study in Philosophy.

Good decisions are Fact Based and free of Logical Fallacies and Cognitive Bias.

Fact Based

Most of us would like to believe we make decisions based on facts. However, distinguishing Science Facts from Science Fiction seems like it should be easy, but it has eluded the world’s top experts for a long, long time.

Karl Popper first named this “The Demarcation Problem.” It falls in the area of Science Philosophy.

Rational means Fallacy Free

Rationality means your decision is based on logical conclusions. However, everyone (including me) commits logical fallacies. We’ll be showing how to easily identify logical fallacies (of others and our own) and how to understand whether the fallacies meaningfully harm the decisions.

This website will provide you with all the tools necessary to help you make fact based decisions that are fully rational.

Cognitive Biases

Cognitive Biases include belief and behavioral biases (e.g. Experimenter Effect, Curse of knowledge), Social biases (e.g. Bandwagon effect, Illusory Superiority / Dunning–Kruger effect), and Memory errors and biases such as Cognitive dissonance.

The term “Hypercertainty” means “Data quality and quantity is inversely related to advocacy certainty and ferocity.” Thus the less and worse data available – the more certain the advocacy. This is dramatically apparent where zero data inspires huge certainty and advocacy.

The Hypercertainty equation is Dq1 * Dq2 = 1/A

David Dilworth, Carmel, California 2012

David is one of only a handful of lifetime members of the organization Committee for Scientific Inquiry (formerly known as CSICOP).  He sports an unusually punny sense of wit and occasionally provides Science repair services as a Quantum Mechanic.

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